Overview
Reliability indicates how much confidence should be placed in the current Receiving Intelligence profile.
Not every receiving profile is supported by the same amount of evidence. A player who has consistently maintained his role over many games provides a stronger analytical foundation than a player whose profile is based on limited participation.
Reliability answers one simple question:
How confident should I be in this evaluation?
Why Reliability Exists
Football seasons are dynamic.
Players return from injury, rookies gradually earn larger roles, veterans lose playing time and offensive structures change throughout the year.
Receiving Intelligence intentionally reacts to these changes. Reliability helps users understand how firmly those observations are supported by the available evidence.
Evidence, Not Talent
Reliability is not a measure of player ability.
It does not indicate whether a player is good or bad.
Instead, it reflects how much evidence supports the current analytical profile.
A low Reliability score does not invalidate a profile. It simply suggests that additional games may be needed before stronger conclusions can be drawn.
Reliability communicates the strength of the evidence behind the current profile. It does not evaluate talent or predict future performance.
How to Interpret Reliability
Receiving Intelligence represents Reliability using three levels:
●●● High Reliability
The current profile is supported by a substantial body of evidence.
●●○ Moderate Reliability
The profile is reasonably supported, but additional evidence may still meaningfully influence the evaluation.
●○○ Developing Reliability
The profile is based on limited evidence and may change more rapidly as new games are played.
Reliability and OTI
OTI measures direction.
Reliability measures confidence.
A player may have an outstanding positive OTI while still displaying developing Reliability if the improvement is based on only a small number of games.
Likewise, an established veteran may show high Reliability even while his OTI turns negative because the evaluation is supported by a much larger sample.
Reliability and Baseline
Baseline compares today's profile with the player's previous completed season.
Reliability helps determine how much confidence should be placed in that comparison.
Together they help distinguish meaningful development from early-season noise.
How to Use Reliability
Reliability should always be considered before making major conclusions from a player's profile.
When Reliability is high, changes are more likely to represent genuine development.
When Reliability is still developing, users should monitor future updates before placing too much weight on recent movement.
What Reliability Is Not
Reliability is not a prediction of future performance.
It is not a ranking and it is not a measure of talent.
Its only purpose is to communicate how strongly the current Receiving Intelligence profile is supported by the available evidence.
Developing Reliability does not mean that the evaluation is wrong. It means that the current profile is supported by less evidence and may change more quickly as new games are played.
What's Next
The next article explains Baseline, the historical reference used to compare today's receiving profile with the player's most recent completed regular season.