Overview
Baseline provides historical context for the player's current Receiving Intelligence profile.
Rather than asking whether the player is improving from last week, Baseline compares the player's current receiving profile with his most recent completed regular season.
It answers one simple question:
How does today's player compare with the player we saw at the end of last season?
Why Baseline Exists
Current performance can be difficult to interpret without a reference point.
A player with an Overall Score of 82 may be having an excellent season if he finished last year at 68. Conversely, an Overall Score of 88 may represent disappointment if the same player ended the previous season at 95.
Baseline provides that historical anchor, allowing users to judge progress or regression relative to the player's own established level.
A Personal Reference Point
Unlike Team Score and League Overall Score, Baseline is not a comparison with teammates or the rest of the league.
It is a comparison with the player's own previous completed-season profile.
This makes Baseline a player-relative measurement rather than a team-relative or league-relative one.
Baseline compares the current receiving profile with the same player's most recent completed regular-season profile.
How to Interpret Baseline
A positive Baseline indicates that the player's current receiving profile is stronger than his previous completed-season profile.
A negative Baseline indicates that the player's current profile remains below that previous level.
Values close to zero suggest that the player is performing at approximately the same level as his established baseline.
Baseline and OTI
Baseline and OTI answer different questions.
OTI measures direction.
Baseline measures distance.
A player may have a strong positive OTI while still remaining below his previous baseline because he is improving after a slow start.
Likewise, a player may remain above his previous baseline despite a negative OTI if his current profile is beginning to decline from an already elevated level.
The two measurements are designed to complement one another.
Use OTI to understand where the profile is moving. Use Baseline to understand where the current profile stands relative to the player's previous completed season.
Baseline and Projection
Baseline describes where the player stands today relative to his previous completed season.
Rest of Season Projection estimates where the current profile could finish if the present pace continues.
One explains the present relative to the past. The other estimates a possible future outcome.
How to Use Baseline
A simple interpretation sequence is:
- Review the Current Profile.
- Check OTI to understand the direction.
- Compare with Baseline to understand how today's profile relates to last season.
- Use Reliability and Team Context before drawing conclusions.
This combination provides a much richer understanding than any individual indicator alone.
What Baseline Is Not
Baseline is not a projection and it is not a league ranking.
It does not compare players with one another.
Its only purpose is to compare the player's current receiving profile with his own previous completed-season profile.
Do not read Baseline as a league-wide comparison. It compares the player only with his own previous completed-season profile.
What's Next
The next article explains Rest of Season Projection and how it extends the player's current pace to a possible completed-season profile.