Historical Intelligence · Article 3

Quarterback Evaluation Model

How Historical Intelligence evaluates completed quarterback seasons across five complementary dimensions.

Historical Intelligence · Article 3

Quarterback Evaluation Model

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

Overview

The Quarterback Evaluation Model is the position-specific model used by Historical Intelligence to evaluate completed NFL regular seasons for quarterbacks.

Rather than focusing on passing yards or fantasy points alone, the model evaluates multiple complementary dimensions of quarterback play. Each completed season is measured using the same analytical framework before being compared with the historical population of NFL quarterback seasons.

Primary question

How strong was this completed quarterback season?

Why a Position-Specific Model

Quarterbacks influence every offensive snap in ways that no other position does.

Passing quality, decision-making, performance under pressure, play creation and rushing contribution all shape the overall value of a quarterback season.

For this reason, Fantasy Mate evaluates quarterbacks using a dedicated analytical model rather than adapting the models used for other positions.

The Five Categories

  • Passing Efficiency
  • Passing Production
  • Pressure Handling
  • Playmaking
  • Rushing

Each category measures a different aspect of the completed season. Together they explain how the season was built, while the Overall Score summarises the complete profile.

Passing Efficiency

Passing Efficiency evaluates how effectively the quarterback converted passing opportunities into positive offensive results.

It measures the quality of passing performance rather than the volume of attempts alone.

Passing Production

Passing Production evaluates the tangible passing output generated during the completed season.

It summarises the quarterback's season-long passing contribution while remaining only one component of the complete evaluation.

Pressure Handling

Pressure Handling evaluates how effectively the quarterback performed when facing defensive pressure.

Quarterbacks who consistently maintain performance under pressure demonstrate a critical aspect of sustained quarterback play.

Playmaking

Playmaking evaluates the quarterback's ability to create positive offensive plays beyond routine execution.

It reflects the capacity to generate value that meaningfully influences offensive success.

Rushing

Rushing evaluates the quarterback's contribution as a runner.

Modern quarterbacks increasingly create value with their legs, making rushing an important dimension of the complete quarterback profile.

Why the Categories Are Separate

Two quarterbacks may finish with similar overall evaluations for very different reasons.

One may rely on exceptional passing efficiency, while another may combine strong production with significant rushing value or outstanding performance under pressure.

Separating these dimensions provides a more complete understanding of the completed season.

Relationship with Future Systems

The Quarterback Evaluation Model belongs to Historical Intelligence and evaluates completed regular seasons.

Passing Intelligence is currently under research and development. If introduced in the future, it will monitor in-season quarterback development using a different methodology and should not be interpreted as a replacement for Historical Intelligence.

Public Transparency

Fantasy Mate explains what each category measures, why it exists and how it should be interpreted.

The exact statistical construction, weighting methodology, transformations and implementation remain proprietary.